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All Outputs (25)

Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M., Roubelat, F., & Marchais-Roubelat, A. (2024, September). Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown. Presented at Anticipation 2024, Lancaster, UK

Building from years of piloting novel methods for future visioning through group engagement, this curated session will take attendees through a fast-tracked, yet fully- immersive scenario planning workshop. The prompt is, “What does 2034 look like if... Read More about Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown.

Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2024, June). Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook. Paper presented at 33rd European Conference on Operational Research, Copenhagen, Denmark

A series of lab and field studies were conducted with managers, executives, and postgraduates to test the hypothesis that priming effects exist within any given scenario planning workshop (Crawford, 2021). The studies show that priming scenario pract... Read More about Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook.

Virtuous opinion change in structured groups (2023)
Journal Article
Bolger, F., Rowe, G., Hamlin, I., Belton, I., Crawford, M., Sissons, A., …Wright, G. (2023). Virtuous opinion change in structured groups. Judgment and Decision Making, 18, Article e25. https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.22

Although the individual has been the focus of most research into judgment and decision-making (JDM), important decisions in the real world are often made collectively rather than individually, a tendency that has increased in recent times with the op... Read More about Virtuous opinion change in structured groups.

A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios (2023)
Journal Article
Crawford, M. M., & Plant‐O'Toole, E. (2023). A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios. Futures & Foresight Science, 5(3-4), Article e167. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.167

This is a book review of Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios by Shardul S. Phadnis, Yossi Sheffi, and Chris Caplice (Cham, Switzerland, 226 p, 2022). The book covers three case studies, presented as... Read More about A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios.

There's No Such Thing As An Unbiased Future (2023)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2023, July). There's No Such Thing As An Unbiased Future. Presented at Women In Data Science (WiDS) London 2023 Conference, Online

A keynote presentation and discussion on why our future(s) will never and can never be free of biases.

There Is No Such Thing As Unbiased Scenario Planning (2023)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2023, July). There Is No Such Thing As Unbiased Scenario Planning. Paper presented at Scenario Planning and Foresight 2023, University of Warwick

A series of lab and field studies were conducted with managers, executives, and postgraduate students to test the hypothesis that an emotional priming effect exists within any given scenario planning workshop (Crawford, 2021). The studies show that p... Read More about There Is No Such Thing As Unbiased Scenario Planning.

Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking Global Project (2023)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2023, July). Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking Global Project. Presented at Scenario Planning and Foresight 2023, University of Warwick

I led a special session that presented our global project to conference attendees. The project includes an edited, peer reviewed book, podcast, and network for future workshops and public engagement opportunities. The special session included discuss... Read More about Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking Global Project.

The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content (2022)
Journal Article
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (2022). The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 183, Article 121937. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121937

Hundreds of scenarios were developed across the world in the first six months of 2020, aimed at generating forward-looking conversations, better understanding COVID-19 transmission rates, trialling economic outcomes, and stress-testing existing syste... Read More about The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content.

Improving And Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking (2022)
Book
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. Improving And Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking. Edward Elgar Publishing

This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories informing global scenario planning and foresight science. The collection of chapters details new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developme... Read More about Improving And Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking.

Structured Groups Make More Accurate Veracity Judgments Than Individuals (2021)
Journal Article
Hamlin, I., Bolger, F., Vasilichi, A., Belton, I., Crawford, M. M., Sissons, A., Taylor Browne Lūka, C., & Wright, G. (2021). Structured Groups Make More Accurate Veracity Judgments Than Individuals. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 35(6), 1600-1607. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3892

Groups often make better judgments than individuals, and recent research suggests that this phenomenon extends to the deception detection domain. The present research investigated whether the influence of groups enhances the accuracy of judgments, an... Read More about Structured Groups Make More Accurate Veracity Judgments Than Individuals.

A comprehensive scenario intervention typology (2021)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2021, September). A comprehensive scenario intervention typology. Presented at YouTube series: Futures and Foresight Papers Explained, Online

Megan Crawford, presents her 2020 paper, "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology" published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Megan talks about how the paper was sparked by a need for clearer directions in scenario planning impl... Read More about A comprehensive scenario intervention typology.

Futures and Analytics Research (FAR) Hub (2021)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M., & Smith, M. (2021, September). Futures and Analytics Research (FAR) Hub. Paper presented at OR63 Online: Creating a better future, Online

Our team would like to present our recent development of an inclusive online learning centre for students and faculty, as a call to action, post-pandemic. The FAR Hub is an online resource for teaching, skill building, and knowledge exchange, with a... Read More about Futures and Analytics Research (FAR) Hub.

Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged? (2021)
Journal Article
Belton, I., Wright, G., Sissons, A., Bolger, F., Crawford, M. M., Hamlin, I., Taylor Browne Lūka, C., & Vasilichi, A. (2021). Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 170, Article 120897. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120897

In this paper, we investigate the effect of Delphi group size and opinion diversity on group members’ information load as well as on their overall experience of the Delphi process - in terms of task involvement (enjoyment and interest) and in terms o... Read More about Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?.

Mass-Produced COVID-19 Scenarios (2021)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (2021, June). Mass-Produced COVID-19 Scenarios. Paper presented at Regions in Recovery: Building Sustainable Futures – Global E-Festival, Online

Mass Produced COVID-19 Scenarios - development (2020)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (2020, October). Mass Produced COVID-19 Scenarios - development. Presented at 40th International Symposium on Forecasting, Online

COVID-19 Scenarios (2020)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (2020, July). COVID-19 Scenarios. Paper presented at Planning Within Crisis: An IA Virtual Town Hall, Online