Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook

Crawford, Megan

Abstract

A series of lab and field studies were conducted with managers, executives, and postgraduates to test the hypothesis that priming effects exist within any given scenario planning workshop (Crawford, 2021). The studies show that priming scenario practitioners with real-world, yet biased views of the external business environment can significantly alter how they view the future, scenario development, and implications for action. Early indicators also suggest some of these biases may be internally consistent. If true, biases based on priming effects suggests potentialities for both facilitated nudging (Bryson, Grime, Murthy & Wright, 2016; Crawford & Wright, 2024) and predictive modelling (i.e. machine learning and AI; Spaniol & Rowland, 2023). These empirical studies are part of a larger grounded theory investigation. Results support three key claims. First, all scenario planning workshops are susceptible to implicit influences. Second, there may be as much consistency as inconsistency in biased scenario thinking and foresight across teams. Third, facilitators need to understand these variabilities in order to help advance meaningful strategies.

Citation

Crawford, M. (2024, June). Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook. Paper presented at 33rd European Conference on Operational Research, Copenhagen, Denmark

• Presentation Conference Type: Conference Paper (unpublished)
• Conference Name: 33rd European Conference on Operational Research
• Start Date: Jun 30, 2024
• End Date: Jul 4, 2024
• Deposit Date: Apr 29, 2024
• Keywords: scenario thinking; grounded theory; biases; emotion; decision making
• Public URL: http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/3603031
• Related Public URLs: https://euro2024cph.dk/