Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?

Belton, Ian; Wright, George; Sissons, Aileen; Bolger, Fergus; Crawford, Megan M; Hamlin, Iain; Taylor Browne L?ka, Courtney; Vasilichi, Alexandrina

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the effect of Delphi group size and opinion diversity on group members’ information load as well as on their overall experience of the Delphi process - in terms of task involvement (enjoyment and interest) and in terms of group sway (the influence and helpfulness of others’ rationales). For Delphi applications involving the exchange of rationales between participants, we found no evidence that group sizes of up to 19 participants cause information overload or de-motivation and disengagement of participants.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: May 17, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Jun 4, 2021
• Publication Date: 2021-09
• Deposit Date: May 19, 2021
• Publicly Available Date: Jun 5, 2023
• Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
• Print ISSN: 0040-1625
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 170
• Article Number: 120897
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120897
• Keywords: Delphi; group processes; information load; Information overload
• Public URL: http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/2773890
• Publisher URL: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/technological-forecasting-and-social-change
• Related Public URLs: https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/e9ubm