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A model of bus bunching under reliability-based passenger arrival patterns

Fonzone, Achille; Schm�cker, Jan-Dirk; Liu, Ronghui


Jan-Dirk Schm�cker

Ronghui Liu


If bus service departure times are not completely unknown to the passengers, non-uniform passenger arrival patterns can be expected. We propose that passengers decide their arrival time at stops based on a continuous logit model that considers the risk of missing services. Expected passenger waiting times are derived in a bus system that allows also for overtaking between bus services. We then propose an algorithm to derive the dwell time of subsequent buses serving a stop in order to illustrate when bus bunching might occur. We show that non-uniform arrival patterns can significantly influence the bus bunching process. With case studies we find that, even without exogenous delay, bunching can arise when the boarding rate is insufficient given the level of overall demand. Further, in case of exogenous delay, non-uniform arrivals can either worsen or improve the bunching conditions, depending on the level of delay. We conclude that therefore such effects should be considered when service control measures are discussed.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date May 31, 2015
Online Publication Date Jun 16, 2015
Publication Date 2015-10
Deposit Date Jul 15, 2015
Publicly Available Date Jun 17, 2016
Journal Transportation Research Part C: Emerging Technologies
Print ISSN 0968-090X
Electronic ISSN 1879-2359
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 59
Pages 164-182
Keywords Bus bunching; Passenger arrival process; Service reliability;
Public URL
Publisher URL
Contract Date Jul 15, 2015


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