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A study of herding behaviour in exit choice during emergencies based on random utility theory.

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Fonzone, Achille; dell�Olio, Luigi; Borri, Dino


Ruggiero Lovreglio

Luigi dell�Olio

Dino Borri


Modelling human behaviour in emergencies has become an important issue in safety engineering. Good behavioural models can help increase the safety of transportation systems and buildings in extreme situations like fires or terrorist attacks. Although it is well known that the interaction with other decision makers affects human behaviour, the role of social influences during evacuations still needs to be investigated. This paper contributes to fill this gap by analysing the occurrence of Herding Behaviour (HB) in exit choice. Theoretical explanations of HB are presented together with some modelling approaches used in different fields where HB is relevant. A discrete choice stated preference experiment is then carried out to study the role of HB in the decision-making process concerning exit choice during evacuation. A binary logit model is proposed showing that the occurrences of HB are affected by both environmental and personal factors. In particular, the model shows that the personal aptitude to HB can have a key role in selecting an exit.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 27, 2015
Online Publication Date Nov 12, 2015
Publication Date 2016-02
Deposit Date Dec 7, 2015
Publicly Available Date May 13, 2017
Journal Safety Science
Print ISSN 0925-7535
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 82
Pages 421-431
Keywords Evacuation modelling; Herding behaviour; Exits choice; Social influences; Random utility theory;
Public URL
Publisher URL
Contract Date Dec 7, 2015


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