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All Outputs (25)

Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown (2024)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M., Roubelat, F., & Marchais-Roubelat, A. (2024, September). Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown. Presented at Anticipation 2024, Lancaster, UK

Building from years of piloting novel methods for future visioning through group engagement, this curated session will take attendees through a fast-tracked, yet fully- immersive scenario planning workshop. The prompt is, “What does 2034 look like if... Read More about Unregulated Futures: Scenario Planning for the Unknown.

Virtuous opinion change in structured groups (2023)
Journal Article
Bolger, F., Rowe, G., Hamlin, I., Belton, I., Crawford, M., Sissons, A., …Wright, G. (2023). Virtuous opinion change in structured groups. Judgment and Decision Making, 18, Article e25. https://doi.org/10.1017/jdm.2023.22

Although the individual has been the focus of most research into judgment and decision-making (JDM), important decisions in the real world are often made collectively rather than individually, a tendency that has increased in recent times with the op... Read More about Virtuous opinion change in structured groups.

A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios (2023)
Journal Article
Crawford, M. M., & Plant‐O'Toole, E. (2023). A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios. Futures & Foresight Science, 5(3-4), Article e167. https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.167

This is a book review of Strategic Planning for Dynamic Supply Chains: Preparing for Uncertainty Using Scenarios by Shardul S. Phadnis, Yossi Sheffi, and Chris Caplice (Cham, Switzerland, 226 p, 2022). The book covers three case studies, presented as... Read More about A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios.

There's No Such Thing As An Unbiased Future (2023)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2023, July). There's No Such Thing As An Unbiased Future. Presented at Women In Data Science (WiDS) London 2023 Conference, Online

A keynote presentation and discussion on why our future(s) will never and can never be free of biases.

Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking Global Project (2023)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2023, July). Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking Global Project. Presented at Scenario Planning and Foresight 2023, University of Warwick

I led a special session that presented our global project to conference attendees. The project includes an edited, peer reviewed book, podcast, and network for future workshops and public engagement opportunities. The special session included discuss... Read More about Scenario Planning and Futures Thinking Global Project.

The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content (2022)
Journal Article
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (2022). The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 183, Article 121937. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121937

Hundreds of scenarios were developed across the world in the first six months of 2020, aimed at generating forward-looking conversations, better understanding COVID-19 transmission rates, trialling economic outcomes, and stress-testing existing syste... Read More about The value of mass-produced COVID-19 scenarios: A quality evaluation of development processes and scenario content.

Improving And Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking (2022)
Book
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (in press). Improving And Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking. Edward Elgar Publishing

This book presents a contemporary view of the approaches and theories informing global scenario planning and foresight science. The collection of chapters details new and broader views of futures thinking, scenario methodologies, innovative developme... Read More about Improving And Enhancing Scenario Planning: Futures Thinking.

Structured Groups Make More Accurate Veracity Judgments Than Individuals (2021)
Journal Article
Hamlin, I., Bolger, F., Vasilichi, A., Belton, I., Crawford, M. M., Sissons, A., Taylor Browne Lūka, C., & Wright, G. (2021). Structured Groups Make More Accurate Veracity Judgments Than Individuals. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 35(6), 1600-1607. https://doi.org/10.1002/acp.3892

Groups often make better judgments than individuals, and recent research suggests that this phenomenon extends to the deception detection domain. The present research investigated whether the influence of groups enhances the accuracy of judgments, an... Read More about Structured Groups Make More Accurate Veracity Judgments Than Individuals.

A comprehensive scenario intervention typology (2021)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2021, September). A comprehensive scenario intervention typology. Presented at YouTube series: Futures and Foresight Papers Explained, Online

Megan Crawford, presents her 2020 paper, "A comprehensive scenario intervention typology" published in Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Megan talks about how the paper was sparked by a need for clearer directions in scenario planning impl... Read More about A comprehensive scenario intervention typology.

Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged? (2021)
Journal Article
Belton, I., Wright, G., Sissons, A., Bolger, F., Crawford, M. M., Hamlin, I., Taylor Browne Lūka, C., & Vasilichi, A. (2021). Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 170, Article 120897. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120897

In this paper, we investigate the effect of Delphi group size and opinion diversity on group members’ information load as well as on their overall experience of the Delphi process - in terms of task involvement (enjoyment and interest) and in terms o... Read More about Delphi with feedback of rationales: How large can a Delphi group be such that participants are not overloaded, de-motivated, or disengaged?.

Mass Produced COVID-19 Scenarios - development (2020)
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M., & Wright, G. (2020, October). Mass Produced COVID-19 Scenarios - development. Presented at 40th International Symposium on Forecasting, Online

Improving the production and evaluation of structural models using a Delphi process (2020)
Preprint / Working Paper
Bolger, F., Nyberg, E. P., Belton, I., Crawford, M. M., Hamlin, I., Nicholson, A., Alvandi, A. O., Pearson, R., Riley, J., Sissons, A., Taylor Browne Lūka, C., Thakur, S., Vasilichi, A., & Wright, G. Improving the production and evaluation of structural models using a Delphi process

Bayes Nets (BNs) are extremely useful for causal and probabilistic modelling in many real-world applications, often built with information elicited from groups of domain experts. But their potential for reasoning and decision support has been limited... Read More about Improving the production and evaluation of structural models using a Delphi process.

A comprehensive scenario intervention typology (2019)
Journal Article
Crawford, M. M. (2019). A comprehensive scenario intervention typology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 149, Article 119748. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119748

Scenario planning, as a recognised organisational intervention, has steadily grown in popularity since the mid-20th century. To date, there are arguably as many methods and techniques as there are practitioners, with applications across nearly all se... Read More about A comprehensive scenario intervention typology.

Using orthographic neighborhood size manipulations to investigate memory deficits in aging memory (2016)
Journal Article
Glanc, G. A., Logan, J. M., Grime, M., Anuwe, A., & Thompson, J. (2016). Using orthographic neighborhood size manipulations to investigate memory deficits in aging memory. Cogent Psychology, 3(1), Article 1220445. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311908.2016.1220445

In three previous studies, manipulations of orthographic neighborhood size and orienting task were used to differentiate between item-specific and rela-tional processing in young adults (aged 18–35) in standard recognition tasks. The current study at... Read More about Using orthographic neighborhood size manipulations to investigate memory deficits in aging memory.

Delphi Method (2016)
Other
Grime, M. M., & Wright, G. (2016). Delphi Method

This article lays out the basic structure of the Delphi method, along with common modifications, and recently developed mixed-model forecasting techniques.Delphi offers a basic structure that can be easily adapted to fit a group’s needs, with respect... Read More about Delphi Method.

Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook
Presentation / Conference Contribution
Crawford, M. (2024, June). Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook. Paper presented at 33rd European Conference on Operational Research, Copenhagen, Denmark

A series of lab and field studies were conducted with managers, executives, and postgraduates to test the hypothesis that priming effects exist within any given scenario planning workshop (Crawford, 2021). The studies show that priming scenario pract... Read More about Biased Foresight: A Facilitator’s Playbook.