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Analysis of Pedestrian Accident Injury-Severities at Road Junctions and Crossings using an Advanced Random Parameter Modelling Framework: The Case of Scotland

Olowosegun, Adebola; Babajide, Nathaniel; Akintola, Adeyemi; Fountas, Grigorios; Fonzone, Achille


Nathaniel Babajide

Adeyemi Akintola


This paper investigates the determinants of injury severities in pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents at signalised and unsignalised junctions, and at physically-controlled and human-controlled crossings in Scotland. The accident data were drawn from the official police crash report database of the UK spanning a period between 2010 and 2018. Correlated random parameter ordered probit models with heterogeneity in the means were developed in order to account for the multi-layered impact of unobserved heterogeneity on statistical estimation. The model estimation results showed that the severities of accident injuries are affected by roadway, location, weather, vehicle, and driver characteristics as well as temporal attributes (including time and day of the accident). Factors such as the urban context, lighting and weather conditions and road surface conditions were found to result in correlated random parameters, thus capturing the intricate, yet interactive effects of unobserved heterogeneity, and particularly the unobserved behavioural response of road users to different traffic control types at junctions and crossings. Vehicle type, driver’s gender and day-of-the-week were observed to influence the random parameters' distributions. Empirically, the results showcase variations in the determinants of injury severities at signalised and unsignalised junctions, and at physically-controlled and human-controlled crossings. Even though most of these variations were related to the magnitude of impact of the determinants, differences in the directional effects on injury severities were also identified, mainly for factors related to weather conditions, hazard presence on the road, and temporal characteristics of the accidents.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 10, 2022
Online Publication Date Mar 6, 2022
Publication Date 2022-05
Deposit Date Feb 11, 2022
Publicly Available Date Mar 7, 2023
Print ISSN 0001-4575
Publisher Elsevier
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 169
Article Number 106610
Keywords Pedestrian accidents; injury severity; ordered probit model; signalised and unsignalised junctions; physically-controlled crossings; human-controlled crossings; correlated random parameters
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