Analysis of Pedestrian Accident Injury-Severities at Road Junctions and Crossings using an Advanced Random Parameter Modelling Framework: The Case of Scotland

Olowosegun, Adebola; Babajide, Nathaniel; Akintola, Adeyemi; Fountas, Grigorios; Fonzone, Achille

Abstract

This paper investigates the determinants of injury severities in pedestrian-motor vehicle accidents at signalised and unsignalised junctions, and at physically-controlled and human-controlled crossings in Scotland. The accident data were drawn from the official police crash report database of the UK spanning a period between 2010 and 2018. Correlated random parameter ordered probit models with heterogeneity in the means were developed in order to account for the multi-layered impact of unobserved heterogeneity on statistical estimation. The model estimation results showed that the severities of accident injuries are affected by roadway, location, weather, vehicle, and driver characteristics as well as temporal attributes (including time and day of the accident). Factors such as the urban context, lighting and weather conditions and road surface conditions were found to result in correlated random parameters, thus capturing the intricate, yet interactive effects of unobserved heterogeneity, and particularly the unobserved behavioural response of road users to different traffic control types at junctions and crossings. Vehicle type, driver’s gender and day-of-the-week were observed to influence the random parameters' distributions. Empirically, the results showcase variations in the determinants of injury severities at signalised and unsignalised junctions, and at physically-controlled and human-controlled crossings. Even though most of these variations were related to the magnitude of impact of the determinants, differences in the directional effects on injury severities were also identified, mainly for factors related to weather conditions, hazard presence on the road, and temporal characteristics of the accidents.

Citation

Olowosegun, A., Babajide, N., Akintola, A., Fountas, G., & Fonzone, A. (2022). Analysis of Pedestrian Accident Injury-Severities at Road Junctions and Crossings using an Advanced Random Parameter Modelling Framework: The Case of Scotland. Accident analysis and prevention, 169, Article 106610. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2022.106610

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Feb 10, 2022
• Online Publication Date: Mar 6, 2022
• Publication Date: 2022-05
• Deposit Date: Feb 11, 2022
• Publicly Available Date: Mar 7, 2023
• Print ISSN: 0001-4575
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 169
• Article Number: 106610
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2022.106610
• Keywords: Pedestrian accidents; injury severity; ordered probit model; signalised and unsignalised junctions; physically-controlled crossings; human-controlled crossings; correlated random parameters
• Public URL: http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/2844766