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The need for latent variables for modelling decision-making in evacuation simulations

Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Borri, Dino; Ronchi, Enrico; Fonzone, Achille; dell’Olio, Luigi


Ruggiero Lovreglio

Dino Borri

Enrico Ronchi

Luigi dell’Olio


Caterina De Lucia

Dino Borri

Atif Kubursi

Abdul Khakee


Evacuation models generally tend to make over-simplifications in the representation of human behaviour in fire due to the difficulties to capture its complexity. This work shows how discrete choice model approaches allow overcoming this issue. A description of the existing state-of-the-art of discrete choice modeling solutions is introduced to highlight the potential of those models. Three case studies are introduced describing an application of the Random Utility Theory to simulate evacuees’ decisions pertaining to the strategic, tactical, and operational levels. This work highlights the need for new datasets including indicators which allows estimating latent factors which may affect evacuees’ decision.

Online Publication Date Jan 18, 2022
Publication Date 2022
Deposit Date Mar 2, 2023
Publisher Routledge
Pages 82-96
Book Title Economics and Engineering of Unpredictable Events: Modelling, Planning and Policies