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Developing a transition probability matrix as a measure of road network maintenance effectiveness.

Mandiartha, Putu; Duffield, Colin F; Thompson, Russell G; Wigan, Marcus


Putu Mandiartha

Colin F Duffield

Russell G Thompson

Marcus Wigan


This paper presents a study that assesses the effectiveness of road network maintenance based on historical costs and road roughness progression. The study is intended to measure the effectiveness of routine maintenance and a combination of routine and periodic maintenance. The study analysis is based on a database developed from the State of Victoria consisting of 898 low volume sealed road sections. A new effectiveness measure is introduced based whether road sections remain in the same state condition or move to next worst condition based on a predefined roughness value. Analysis shows that under routine maintenance (without periodic maintenance), the probability of road sections remaining in the same condition exhibit a declining tendency from good to worst state of conditions in comparison with a result when the maintenance budget is spent on a combination of routine and periodic maintenance. Following this, a stochastic prediction model is developed by converting the results into transition probability matrices. These results demonstrate a new and important rationale for road authorities to optimize the selection of appropriate maintenance measures.

Conference Name 90th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Start Date Jan 23, 2011
End Date Jan 27, 2011
Publication Date 2011
Deposit Date Jul 9, 2013
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Keywords Condition surveys; Low volume roads; Maintenance practices; Pavement maintenance; Roughness; Sealing compounds; Test sections
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