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Mode of birth after caesarean section: individual prediction scores using Scottish population data

Denham, Sara Helen; Humphrey, Tracy; deLabrusse, Claire; Dougall, Nadine


Sara Helen Denham

Tracy Humphrey

Claire deLabrusse


Rising caesarean section (CS) rates are a global health concern. Contemporary data indicates that almost 50% of CS are electively performed, with a high proportion of these being a repeat procedure. Vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) is recognised as a safe way to give birth in developed countries. UK national maternity policy and worldwide professional guidance supports shared decision-making about mode of birth with women following CS. Evidence suggests that women want individualised information, particularly about their likeilihood of successful VBAC, to enable them to participate in the decision making process. This study aimed to identify characteristics that could inform a predictive model which would allow women to receive personalised and clinically specific information about their likelihood of achieving a successful VBAC in subsequent pregnancies.
An observational study using anonymised clinical data extracted from a detailed, comprehensive socio-demographic and clinical dataset. All women who attempted a singleton term VBAC between 2000 and 2012 were included. Data were analysed using both logistic regression and Bayesian statistical techniques to identify clinical and demographic variables predictive of successful VBAC.
Variables significantly associated with VBAC were: ethnicity (p = 0.011), maternal obstetric complications (p 

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Feb 19, 2019
Online Publication Date Feb 28, 2019
Publication Date 2019-12
Deposit Date Mar 7, 2019
Publicly Available Date Mar 7, 2019
Journal BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
Print ISSN 1471-2393
Publisher BMC
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 19
Article Number 84
Keywords Caesarean section (CS), national maternity policy, VBAC, Vaginal birth after caesarean ,
Public URL
Contract Date Mar 7, 2019


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