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Intelligent swarm firefly algorithm for the prediction of China's national electricity consumption

Zhang, Guangfeng; Chen, Yi; Li, Yun; Yu, Hongnian; Hu, Hosheng; Wu, Shaomin


Guangfeng Zhang

Yi Chen

Yun Li

Hosheng Hu

Shaomin Wu


China's energy consumption is the world's largest and is still rising, leading to concerns of energy shortage and environmental issues. It is, therefore, necessary to estimate the energy demand and to examine the dynamic nature of the electricity consumption. In this paper, we develop a nonlinear model of energy consumption and utilise a computational intelligence approach, specifically a swarm firefly algorithm with a variable population, to examine China's electricity consumption with historical statistical data from 1980 to 2012. Prediction based on these data using the model and the examination is verified with a bivariate sensitivity analysis, a bias analysis and a forecasting exercise, which all suggest that the national macroeconomic performance, the electricity price, the electricity consumption efficiency and the economic structure are four critical factors determining national electricity consumption. Actuate prediction of the consumption is important as it has explicit policy implications on the electricity sector development and planning for power plants.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Mar 20, 2019
Online Publication Date Mar 21, 2019
Publication Date 2019
Deposit Date Jun 17, 2022
Journal International Journal of Bio-Inspired Computation
Print ISSN 1758-0366
Electronic ISSN 1758-0374
Publisher Inderscience
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 13
Issue 2
Pages 111-118
Keywords General Computer Science; Theoretical Computer Science
Public URL