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Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative in the Indian subcontinent under future port development scenarios

Ruan, Xiao; Bandara, Yapa Mahinda; Lee, Jun-Yeop; Lee, Paul Tae-Woo; Chhetri, Prem

Authors

Xiao Ruan

Jun-Yeop Lee

Paul Tae-Woo Lee

Prem Chhetri



Abstract

The aim of this paper is twofold: the first is to assess the extent to which current port development initiatives contribute to securing the status of the Port of Colombo as a regional transshipment (T/S) hub to serve the Indian subcontinent; and the second is to generate plausible future development scenarios for the maritime industry in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A scenario analysis method is applied to examine the past trends and to build future development scenarios. The results showed that major Indian ports have experienced a significant growth in cargo volumes and vessel traffic. South and East Indian coastal ports continue to use the Port of Colombo as a T/S port in tandem with the corridors connected to the Indian Ocean. Scenario analysis highlights the growing importance of BRI-centric land-based economic corridors, which would generate a large amount of cargos from hinterlands up to China. This would be further fueled through the Great Mekong region-driven industrialization, which would add to the west-bound maritime cargo volume. The paper concludes that the increased capital influx from China would more likely to result in a substantial development of the present port and road/rail infrastructure in Sri Lanka.

Journal Article Type Article
Online Publication Date Mar 26, 2019
Publication Date Nov 17, 2019
Deposit Date Dec 4, 2021
Journal Maritime Policy & Management
Print ISSN 0308-8839
Electronic ISSN 1464-5254
Publisher Routledge
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 46
Issue 8
Pages 905-919
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/03088839.2019.1594425
Keywords Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), port infrastructure development, Indian subcontinent, Sri Lanka, scenario analysis, container shipping, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
Public URL http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/2824389