Cross-Validation of Good versus Poor Self-reported Outcome Trajectory Types Following Knee Arthroplasty

Riddle, Daniel; MacFarlane, Gary; Hamilton, David; Beasley, Marcus; Dumenci, Levent

Abstract

Objective
To determine whether good versus poor outcome trajectories and predictors of poor outcome obtained in a derivation study could be replicated in an independent sample of persons undergoing knee arthroplasty (KA).
Methods
We used data from TRIO-POPULAR, a prospective cohort study of 926 participants who underwent KA in the United Kingdom. The participants were assessed preoperatively and 6-weeks, 6- and 12-months postoperatively. The Oxford Knee Score was the primary outcome and a variety of pre-operative predictors of outcome were selected. The outcome measure and the predictors were selected to most closely align with a previously published derivation study of good versus poor outcome. Confirmatory two-piece latent class growth curve analyses were used to model outcome and regression was used to identify predictors of outcome class.
Results
Trajectories for the Oxford Knee Scores from TRIO-POPULAR replicated trajectories for WOMAC Pain and Function scores from the previously published derivation study. Multivariable predictors of poor outcome were pain catastrophizing (odds ratio = 1.125, 95% CI = 1.048, .206, p=0.001) and comorbidity (odds ratio = 1.134, 95%CI = 1.049, 1.227, p=0.002. Pain catastrophizing also predicted poor outcome in the derivation study.
Conclusions
Good and poor outcome trajectories replicated those found in the previously published derivation study. Our model-based method produces stable outcome trajectories despite using data from different countries and participants with substantively different characteristics. Predictors of poor outcome were somewhat inconsistent between the cross-validation and derivation studies. Pain catastrophizing was the only consistent poor outcome predictor.

Citation

Riddle, D., MacFarlane, G., Hamilton, D., Beasley, M., & Dumenci, L. (2022). Cross-Validation of Good versus Poor Self-reported Outcome Trajectory Types Following Knee Arthroplasty. Osteoarthritis and Cartilage, 30(1), 61-68. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joca.2021.09.004

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Sep 6, 2021
• Online Publication Date: Sep 14, 2021
• Publication Date: 2022-01
• Deposit Date: Oct 18, 2021
• Journal: Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
• Print ISSN: 1063-4584
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 30
• Issue: 1
• Pages: 61-68
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joca.2021.09.004
• Keywords: knee, outcome, arthroplasty
• Public URL: http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/2800631