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Uncertainty Analysis in Embodied Carbon Assessments: What Are the Implications of Its Omission?

Mendoza Beltran, M. A.; Pomponi, Francesco; Guin�e, J. B.; Heijungs, R.

Authors

M. A. Mendoza Beltran

J. B. Guin�e

R. Heijungs



Contributors

C. De Wolf
Editor

A. Moncaster
Editor

Abstract

Embodied carbon assessments of buildings are not methodologically very different from the more well-known life cycle assessments (LCAs). In particular, the two also share the frequent lack of uncertainty analysis in many assessments produced by academics as well as practitioners. An assessment that omits uncertainty analysis generally results in a single, very definite numerical output which however embeds no information on the likelihood of that value being true. Similarly, in comparative studies, the assessment produces two values, and the main outcome is merely reduced to a higher/lower comparison in order to choose the alternative allegedly less detrimental to the environment.

The chapter will provide the reader with a worked example through an overview of the whole process related to uncertainty analysis, from the rationale to the methodological challenges through to the increased usefulness of the results in comparison with single-value assessments. Addressing uncertainty and variability in LCA adds information about the significance and robustness of the results, as well as it benefits and facilitates environmentally conscious decisions by recognizing innovation opportunities that can be overlooked when not addressing uncertainty.

Citation

Mendoza Beltran, M. A., Pomponi, F., Guinée, J. B., & Heijungs, R. (2018). Uncertainty Analysis in Embodied Carbon Assessments: What Are the Implications of Its Omission?. In F. Pomponi, C. De Wolf, & A. Moncaster (Eds.), Embodied Carbon in Buildings (3-21). London: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72796-7_1

Acceptance Date Jan 4, 2018
Online Publication Date Jan 30, 2018
Publication Date Jan 30, 2018
Deposit Date Feb 2, 2018
Publicly Available Date Mar 28, 2024
Publisher Springer
Pages 3-21
Book Title Embodied Carbon in Buildings
Chapter Number 1
ISBN 9783319727950; 9783319727967
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72796-7_1
Keywords LCA, Uncertainty analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, Embodied carbon, Buildings
Public URL http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/1033945