Risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes involving bicycles in the United Kingdom: Revisited and reanalysed

Chao, Chun-Chieh; Ma, Hon-Ping; Wei, Li; Lin, Yen-Nung; Chen, Chenyi; Saleh, Wafaa; Wiratama, Bayu Satria; Widodo, Akhmad Fajri; Hsu, Shou-Chien; Ko, Shih Yu; Lin, Hui-An; Chan, Cheng-Wei; Pai, Chih-Wei

Abstract

Background and objective: Relevant research has provided valuable insights into risk factors for bicycle crashes at intersections. However, few studies have focused explicitly on three common types of bicycle crashes on road segments: overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes. This study aims to identify risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes that occur on road segments. Material and methods: We analysed British STATS19 accident records from 1991 to 2020. Using multivariate logistic regression models, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (AORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for multiple risk factors. The analysis included 127,637 bicycle crashes, categorised into 18,350 overtaking, 44,962 rear-end, 6,363 door, and 57,962 other crashes. Results: Significant risk factors for overtaking crashes included heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) as crash partners (AOR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.27–1.33), and elderly crash partners (AOR = 2.01, 95% CI = 1.94–2.09), and decreased risk in rural area with speed limits of 20–30 miles per hour (AOR = 0.45, 95% CI = 0.43–0.47). For rear-end crashes, noteworthy risk factors included unlit darkness (AOR = 1.49, 95% CI = 1.40–1.57) and midnight hours (AOR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.21–1.40). Factors associated with door crashes included urban areas (AOR = 16.2, 95% CI = 13.5–19.4) and taxi or private hire cars (AOR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.57–1.69). Our joint-effect analysis revealed additional interesting results; for example, there were elevated risks for overtaking crashes in rural areas with elderly drivers as crash partners (AOR = 2.93, 95% CI = 2.79–3.08) and with HGVs as crash partners (AOR = 2.62, 95% CI = 2.46–2.78). Conclusions: The aforementioned risk factors remained largely unchanged since 2011, when we conducted our previous study. However, the present study concluded that the detrimental effects of certain variables became more pronounced in certain situations. For example, cyclists in rural settings exhibited an elevated risk of overtaking crashes involving HGVs as crash partners.

Citation

Chao, C.-C., Ma, H.-P., Wei, L., Lin, Y.-N., Chen, C., Saleh, W., Wiratama, B. S., Widodo, A. F., Hsu, S.-C., Ko, S. Y., Lin, H.-A., Chan, C.-W., & Pai, C.-W. (2025). Risk factors for overtaking, rear-end, and door crashes involving bicycles in the United Kingdom: Revisited and reanalysed. PLOS ONE, 20(1), Article e0315692. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0315692

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: Nov 28, 2024
• Online Publication Date: Jan 3, 2025
• Publication Date: 2025
• Deposit Date: Jan 13, 2025
• Publicly Available Date: Jan 13, 2025
• Journal: PLOS ONE
• Print ISSN: 1932-6203
• Publisher: Public Library of Science
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 20
• Issue: 1
• Article Number: e0315692
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0315692