Exploring Monte Carlo simulation technique for constrution project risk management

Ikediashi, Dubem Isaac; Ogwueleka, Amaka

Abstract

This paper aims to examine basic theories and principles of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for analysing construction project risk management. The specific objectives are to review the origin of MSC, examine the basic principles and procedures of the technique for construction project risk management, and presents a case study to highlight its application in the construction management domain. Using literature review, findings indicate that although the origin of MCS in construction project management is unclear, its successive use in the analysis of risks has been widely acknowledged. Besides, MCS is discovered through this research to allow for sensitivity analysis and optimisation of real life situations without having to operate the real life system. However, findings reveal that the technique has obvious limitations which include among others high use of computer energy which makes it very expensive and time consuming to build simulation. It is recommended among others that project managers should avail themselves of the opportunity to acquire skill and technical experience to handle complex simulation problems in order to overcome the reluctance in using MCS.

Citation

Ikediashi, D. I., & Ogwueleka, A. (2018). Exploring Monte Carlo simulation technique for constrution project risk management. In Conference Proceedings from the Fourth International SEEDS Conference (168-177)

• Conference Name: Fourth International SEEDS Conference 2018
• Conference Location: Dublin, Ireland
• Start Date: Sep 6, 2018
• End Date: Sep 7, 2018
• Online Publication Date: Sep 6, 2018
• Publication Date: 2018-09
• Deposit Date: Jan 1, 2023
• Pages: 168-177
• Book Title: Conference Proceedings from the Fourth International SEEDS Conference
• ISBN: 978-0-9955690-3-4
• Keywords: Risk identification, Risk analysis, Simulation, Project management
• Public URL: http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/2996819