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Supply side sentiments and international travel: a novel dynamic simulation of policy options for business and investor sentiments

Adamolekun, Gbenga; Adedoyin, Festus Fatai; Ozturk, Ilhan


Festus Fatai Adedoyin

Ilhan Ozturk


The tourism literature widely documents how emotions, mood and optimism drive the demand for tourism. However, the literature is mute on whether sentiment plays a role in the supply side. We use a forward-looking forecasting model to investigate the interplay between various sentiment measures and travel. The simulation robustly accounts for the effect of trade, real GDP, and foreign direct investment on travel services. The result shows a long-term relationship between travel services and customer sentiment, hence, an increase in the bull-bear spread (BBS), in the short run, has a negative influence on travel services, but this link fades in the long run. Consumer confidence, on the other hand, has a positive impact on travel services in both the short and long run. Our findings advocate the consideration of sentiments when modelling travel services export. The forecasting model also reveals that travel services will decline in the future.

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Oct 27, 2022
Online Publication Date Nov 9, 2022
Deposit Date Nov 10, 2022
Journal Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events
Print ISSN 1940-7963
Electronic ISSN 1940-7971
Publisher Routledge
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Keywords Tourism, travel services, forecasting, investors’ sentiment, business – sentiment
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