Coronavirus lockdown and virus suppression: An international analysis

Hwang, Tienyu

Abstract

This paper analyses the effect of lockdown against the coronavirus which is one of the fastest growing threats in the world. We focus on three categories of lockdown and group four continents, Asia, America, Europe, and Africa together to assess the effectiveness of such a measure to contain the virus. We also look at a number of variables linked to the spread of the virus to determine the factors affecting the growth of new confirmed cases. We show evidence that countries in Europe are more likely to impose a national lockdown than any other continent. For the empirical analysis, we undertake the cross-sectional regression model, logistic regression model and logistic growth curve as a method to apply the data collected over the period March to June 2020 as this is the data available at the time this paper is composed. The empirical results of this paper indicate that countries which impose the strictest form of lockdown will result in a reduction in growth of new confirmed cases.

• Journal Article Type: Article
• Acceptance Date: May 1, 2021
• Online Publication Date: May 16, 2021
• Publication Date: 2021-09
• Deposit Date: Aug 5, 2021
• Journal: Technological Forecasting and Social Change
• Print ISSN: 0040-1625
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Peer Reviewed: Peer Reviewed
• Volume: 170
• Article Number: 120861
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120861
• Keywords: Covid-19 lockdown, Reproduction rate, Logistic growth curve, Stringency index, Logistic regression model
• Public URL: http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/2791389