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Risk analysis in construction networks using a modified stochastic model.

GUO, QIU LING; Guo, Qiu Ling; MAHER, MIKE; WAMUZIRI, SAM

Authors

QIU LING GUO

Qiu Ling Guo

MIKE MAHER

SAM WAMUZIRI



Abstract

A review of construction network analysis indicates that new methods are needed for quantifying risks in project evaluation. The paper proposes a new analytical method, the Modified Stochastic Assignment Model (MSAM), for the prediction of project duration. The proposed method is inspired by a previous method used solely in traffic networks, the Stochastic Assignment Model (SAM). The MSAM method applies Clark's approximation to find the longest project duration. Two cases are used to demonstrate the validity and application of the MSAM in construction project evaluations. The accuracy of the MSAM is assessed by comparing it with the Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). A comparison of the MSAM with other methods, such as PERT and PNET, has also been presented. It is found that the new method is an analytical counterpart of the MCS and is very efficient in saving computational time whilst taking full account of the correlations between paths.

Journal Article Type Article
Publication Date 2001-06
Deposit Date Mar 17, 2008
Print ISSN 1028-6608
Electronic ISSN 1029-0249
Publisher Taylor & Francis
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 18
Issue 3
Pages 215-241
DOI https://doi.org/10.1080/02630250108970301
Keywords Risk; Construction networks; Modified Stochastic Assignment Model; MSAM; Project duration; Prediction; Clark's approximation; Comparisons; Monte Carlo Simulation; PERT; PNET; Evaluation;
Public URL http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/id/eprint/2021
Publisher URL http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02630250108970301