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Multiple Impact Pathways Of The 2015-2016 El Niño In Coastal Kenya

Fortnam, Matt; Atkins, Molly; Brown, Katrina; Chaigneau, Tomas; Frouws, Ankje; Gwaro, Kemyline; Huxam, Mark; Kairo, James G.; Kimeli, Amon; Kirui, Bernard K.; Sheen, Katy

Authors

Matt Fortnam

Molly Atkins

Katrina Brown

Tomas Chaigneau

Ankje Frouws

Kemyline Gwaro

James G. Kairo

Amon Kimeli

Bernard K. Kirui

Katy Sheen



Abstract

The 2015-2016 El Niño had large impacts globally. The effects were not as great as anticipated in Kenya, however, leading some commentators to call it a 'non-event'. Our study uses a novel combination of participatory Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis tools, and new and existing social and biophysical data, to analyse vulnerability to, and the multidimensional impacts of, the 2015-16 El Niño episode in southern coastal Kenya. By using a social-ecological systems lens and a unique dataset, our study reveals impacts overlooked by conventional analysis. We show how El Niño stressors interact with and amplify existing vulnerabilities to differentially impact local ecosystems and people. The policy significance of this finding is that the development of specific national capacities to deal with El Niño events is insufficient; it will be necessary to also address local vulnerabilities to everyday and recurrent stressors and shocks to build resilience to the effects of El Niño and other extremes in climate and weather.

Citation

Fortnam, M., Atkins, M., Brown, K., Chaigneau, T., Frouws, A., Gwaro, K., …Sheen, K. (2020). Multiple Impact Pathways Of The 2015-2016 El Niño In Coastal Kenya. AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 50, 174-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z

Journal Article Type Article
Acceptance Date Jan 10, 2020
Online Publication Date Mar 9, 2020
Publication Date Mar 9, 2020
Deposit Date Nov 27, 2019
Publicly Available Date Mar 29, 2024
Print ISSN 0044-7447
Electronic ISSN 1654-7209
Publisher BMC
Peer Reviewed Peer Reviewed
Volume 50
Pages 174-189
DOI https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-020-01321-z
Keywords El Niño; climate variability; coastal social-ecological systems; vulnerability; resilience
Public URL http://researchrepository.napier.ac.uk/Output/2351423

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